Arizona Gubernatorial Race Tightens as Polls Reflect Uncertain Outcome
A recent poll indicates a highly competitive gubernatorial race in Arizona, with Democratic incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs holding narrow leads against her potential Republican challengers, Karrin Taylor Robson and Representative Andy Biggs. Conducted by Noble Predictive from May 12-16, the survey reveals Hobbs at 41% support against Robson’s 39% and 40% against Biggs’ 38%, with 17% of voters undecided—a clear sign that the outcome remains in flux.
The political landscape is amplified by the 2026 midterms, especially after Hobbs’ narrow victory over Republican Kari Lake in 2022. Notably, Robson leads initial Republican polls with 24%, followed by Biggs and conservative Charlie Kirk, who has recently endorsed Biggs after withdrawing from the race. Such endorsements may provide Biggs with influential support among younger and diverse voters, crucial demographics in Arizona’s evolving electorate.
While Hobbs boasts a 49% favorability rating, the Republican primary candidates face a similar challenge, with Robson and Biggs showing net ratings of -1 and +4, respectively. The race’s dynamics, compounded by economic issues and Trump’s dual endorsements, suggest an unpredictable campaign ahead, marked by a significant Republican registration advantage. The primary will occur on August 4, 2026, with the general election set for November 3, 2026.
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